Is Japan indicative of the future of the US?

Japan leads the US towards a path associated with:
a) a decreasing fertility rate much below replacement rate;
b) an aging society;
c) a declining population growth;
d) a slowing economy; and
e) an increasingly leveraged Public finance position (large Budget Deficits, very high Public/Debt ratio).

However, the two countries are likely to continue diverging materially on several counts:

a) The US population growth is already declining.  But, it is likely to remain positive and much above Japan.  That is because the US benefits from a robust net migration of close to + 1.5% of the population per year vs. only 0.5% for Japan; 

b) Health status and healthcare costs metrics will likely continue to show Japan with far better health outcome associated with far lower health care costs.  This is in good part because of the inputs.  Japanese are far healthier than Americans.  And, these divergences appear likely to continue; 

c) Japan is likely to continue outperforming the US on primary school indicators; 

d) The US is likely to continue outperforming Japan on university level indicators and the generation of science and engineering degrees and papers. 

I have conducted a detailed analysis of all of the above that I share at: 

Study at Slideshare.net

Study at SlidesFinder  

I share these two different platform access options, as I don't know which one is easiest to access.

Below I am sharing just a few of the key slides of this analysis.
The slide below discloses that over the next 40 years, the US population and economy is anticipated to grow much faster than Japan, mainly due to the US higher net migration.  However, Japan's Real GDP per capita is expected to grow faster than the US.

This next slide is an intriguing causal model.  It discloses that Americans drink a lot more soft drinks, watch a lot more TV, and have a far shorter school year than Japanese.  These three indicators may have causal implications on several health metrics: obesity rate, life expectancy, and health care cost.  They may also have implication in overall population IQ and prospective RGP p.c. forecast.

Below, I am just sharing a few references regarding the respective countries' IQ score. 

While the trends reviewed so far favor Japan, the next set of trends related to upper level education reflect a marked competitive advantage for the US. 

The US dominates the ranks of top universities. 

The US also produces a competitive number of Doctorate degrees in science and engineering. 

 

The US also publishes a competitive number of papers and articles in science and engineering.