The short answer is that it is most unlikely that we will be able to do so.
As we speak our global temperature is already at about 1.1 degree Celsius (over the average from 1850 - 1900). So, we have only 0.4 degree Celsius to play with.
Over the past 40 years, our temperature has risen by 0.7 degrees. If the past is representative of the future, this suggests that over the next 23 years our temperature may very well increase by 0.4 degree over current levels. And, going forward we would cross the + 1.5 degree threshold.
This back of the envelope estimate is very much in line with the most recent scenarios generated by the IPCC, as shown below.
It is also in line with a forecast generated by a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model I had introduced in a recent post, as shown below.
Thus, as described using three completely different methods ranging from rudimentary to pretty complex, we are most likely to run into trouble during the 2040s when we well could cross that + 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.
One can still advance the argument that going forward everything will change. We are decarbonising our World economy, etc.
Well, the U.S. International Energy Agency (IEA) most recent forecast is really not encouraging on this ground. They foresee a continued rapid rise in CO2 emission that will contribute to ongoing temperature rise.
“If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth.
Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.”
If you want more information on this topic, please view the link to my presentation on the subject.
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