I recently completed an analysis focused on population aging, population age categories in % (age pyramids), and overall population growth. It looks at various geographic units (countries, continents, regions, World) from 1950 to the Present (2019 & 2020). And, it looks at projections out to 2100.
I used data sourced from the UN Population Division.
The main takeaway is that Africa is an outlier to the overall global aging; its population growth (historical & projected) is far faster than for other major regions.
You can read the complete study at the following link:
... or a slightly shorter version at the following link:
The above study consists of a Powerpoint with close to 60 slides. It is very visual, and easy to digest. But, as an intro to the whole thing, I will share a few highlights below by illustrating some of the key slides.
First, let's disclose the three types of age pyramids. Age pyramids are an aesthetic way of visualizing the population age profile of a country.
A young population has a sharp looking pyramid with a large foundation (large youth base associated with high fertility) and a very sharp top (few elderly, short life expectancy).
We can articulate an explanatory model that describes the process of global aging. As women get more
educated, they participate in the labor force.
And, fertility drops, life expectancy increases, population growth slows
down, and population ages.
Within the full presentation, I share a ton of visual data that supports many of the variables' relationships defined in the model.
This model explains how a population pyramid evolves from looking like a pyramid (young) to a urn (old), as shown below.
The graph below compares the age pyramid of Nigeria, Brazil, and Japan in 1950 and in 2019.
Back in 1950, the three countries' respective age pyramids looked nearly identical. But, in 2019 they look radically different. Nigeria's age pyramid has not changed since 1950. It is still depicting a very young population. Meanwhile, in 2019 Brazil's population pyramid looks very mature; and, Japan's looks very old.
The population of Nigeria has grown from 37.9 million in 1950 to 206.1 million in 2020; and is projected to reach 793.9 million by 2100!
This historical and projected explosive population growth is true not only for Nigeria but for the whole of Africa. Africa's population has grown from 0.23 billion in 1950 to 1.34 billion in 2020; and is projected to reach 4.47 billion in 2100!
Africa's continued explosive population growth is truly divergent when compared with any other large region.
By comparison, see how Europe's population has already peaked by 2020, and is projected to decline out to 2100. This is a picture of ongoing population aging.
Population aging is even more pronounced for China. Its population is expected to peak before 2040, and decline rapidly out to 2100.
The table below discloses the population growth (historical and projected) for Africa and a few other major regions with population of more than 1 billion in 2020.
Notice how all four regions have a fairly similar population size in 2020. However, by 2100 Africa's population is projected to be 3 to 4 times larger than the other regions!
And, this is how these regions share of the World population will change over the reviewed time periods.
Next, let's compare Africa vs. the remainder of the World, excluding Africa.
The World's population is projected to increase from 7.79 billion in 2020 to 10.88 billion in 2100. And, the entire growth in the World's population is due to Africa. The remainder of the World's population is projected to remain perfectly flat at around 6.4 billion.
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